فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی راهبرد اقتصادی

فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی راهبرد اقتصادی

تحلیل راهبردی جنگ تحمیلی 12 روزه: رویکرد واقع‌گرایی ساختاری و ژئواکونومیک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
دانشیار دانشکده معارف اسلامی و اقتصاد، دانشگاه امام صادق علیه‌السلام، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
جنگ تحمیلی 12روزه 1404 را نمی‌توان صرفاً یک اقدام محدود نظامی بر علیه ایران دانست بلکه باید آن را در بستر رقابت‌های ژئوپلیتیکی جهانی، منازعات انرژی و تلاش غرب برای بازتعریف نظم نوین در آسیای غربی تحلیل کرد. این پژوهش با رویکرد واقع‌گرایی ساختاری و ژئواکونومیک، تلاش دارد ابعاد ژئوپلیتیکی و اقتصادی این رخداد را واکاوی کرده و پیامدهای آن را برای امنیت ملی ایران توضیح دهد. بیان مسئله در این است که ایران در مواجهه با ترکیب فشارهای سخت نظامی و فشارهای نرم اقتصادی ـ سیاسی نیازمند راهبردی چندلایه است. شکاف پژوهش در ادبیات موجود نیز به فقدان تحلیل یکپارچه امنیتی ـ اقتصادی در بررسی چنین بحران‌هایی بازمی‌گردد. روش‌شناسی پژوهش مبتنی بر تحلیل کیفی منابع دست اول شامل اسناد بین‌المللی، گزارش‌های اندیشکده‌های غربی، و داده‌های ثانویه از خبرگزاری‌ها و مراکز پژوهشی معتبر است. مراحل تحلیل در چهار گام شامل تبیین زمینه­های ژئوپلیتیکی حمله، بررسی مواضع قدرت‌های بزرگ و منطقه‌ای، تحلیل راهبردهای ایران، و ارائه پیشنهادهای سیاستی در سطوح داخلی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی تنظیم شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که بازدارندگی پایدار ایران مستلزم ترکیبی از اصلاحات اقتصادی داخلی، بازتعریف دیپلماسی منطقه‌ای و بهره‌گیری فعال از حقوق بین‌الملل است. در سطح داخلی، اصلاح ساختار بودجه و کاهش وابستگی به نفت، تقویت صندوق‌های معیشتی هوشمند، حمایت از زنجیره تولید کالاهای اساسی، و توسعه صنایع دفاعی و دانش‌بنیان ضروری است. همچنین، حرکت به‌سوی اقتصاد صادرات‌محور و متنوع‌سازی بازارهای هدف همراه با بازسازی سرمایه اجتماعی و حکمرانی مشارکتی، بستر اصلی بازدارندگی نرم و اعتماد ملی را فراهم می‌سازد. نتیجه‌گیری این است که امنیت ملی ایران صرفاً در میدان نظامی تعیین نمی‌شود بلکه به همان میزان در عرصه حکمرانی اقتصادی، دیپلماسی هوشمند و روایت‌سازی جهانی شکل می‌گیرد. پیشنهادهای سیاستی این پژوهش تأکید دارد که بدون پیوند میان بازدارندگی سخت و نرم، و بدون اصلاحات داخلی به‌ویژه در حوزه اقتصادی و اجتماعی، امکان عبور موفق از بحران‌های مشابه فراهم نخواهد شد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

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  • تاریخ دریافت 06 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 30 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 05 شهریور 1404