The issue of Iraq's energy independence and reducing its reliance on gas and electricity imports from Iran is a strategic and multifaceted challenge with significant economic and geopolitical implications for both countries. This study aims to clarify the dimensions of Iraq's energy dependence on Iran, analyze ongoing projects in Iraq related to gas, electricity, and renewable energy, and examine the impact of extensive investments in these sectors on reducing dependency by 2030. The theoretical framework is based on the International Energy Agency's (IEA) concept of energy security and scenario analysis, which identifies key driving forces, critical uncertainties, likely scenarios, and assesses their consequences. The research employs an analytical approach using data from Iraq's energy projects and scenario-based analysis. Findings indicate that achieving scenarios ranging from relative to full independence, along with a green leap in renewable energy development, could substantially reduce Iraq's dependence on Iran, with considerable effects on Iran's energy security and economy and this trend is directly related to the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the field of energy - especially the emphasis on "diversifying markets," "increasing electricity and gas exports," and "consolidating Iran's position in regional energy markets.". Four distinct future scenarios for Iraq are presented, each with specific strengths and weaknesses: relative independence, full independence, sustained dependence, and a green leap. The study concludes that Iran should adopt adaptive policies focusing on cooperation and technology transfer to maintain its critical position in Iraq's energy market.