Impact of macroeconomic variables on imbalances in Iranian pension funds: Implications for the realization of the third paragraph of general social security policies

Sakifar, Ali; Miraskari, Seyed Reza; Rezaei Pitenoei, Yasser

doi:10.22034/es.2026.546438.1893

Impact of macroeconomic variables on imbalances in Iranian pension funds: Implications for the realization of the third paragraph of general social security policies

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Ali Sakifar ¹

Seyed Reza Miraskari ²

Yasser Rezaei Pitenoei ³

¹ Master of Financial Management, University of Guilan

² Faculty Member of University of Guilan

³ Faculty member of Accounting Department, University of Guilan

10.22034/es.2026.546438.1893

Abstract

In recent years, the financial and economic situation of pension funds in the country has reached a worrying state. The main crisis facing the funds is that they have faced a deficit in fulfilling their obligations. The pension system is one of the most important areas that has been challenged in recent decades due to severe fluctuations in the country's macroeconomics. Therefore, given the importance of the stability of the financial performance of pension funds, this article explains the macroeconomic variables that determine and affect this performance and their ranking. To test the validity of the theoretical research model and calculate the impact coefficients, the structural equation modeling method was used using PLS software. In order to prioritize the effective components, a questionnaire was prepared and distributed with the participation of 59 university professors, experts, and capital market and pension fund specialists. From the experts' point of view, the research results show that macroeconomic variables, including economic growth rate, liquidity, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, oil revenues, government budget deficit, and sanctions have significant effect on funds crisis. This article tries to help in appropriate policymaking to achieve the objectives of the third paragraph of general social security policies by examining and ranking variables.

Keywords

Pension funds

financial crises

macroeconomic variables

Subjects