Economic Strategy

Economic Strategy

Strategic Analysis of the 12-Day Imposed War on Iran: A Structural Realism and Geoeconomic Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Davood Manzoor
Associate Professor, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadegh University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/es.2025.533085.1874
Abstract
The twelve-day imposed war of 2025 against Iran cannot be regarded merely as a pure military operation; rather, it must be analyzed within the broader context of global geopolitical rivalries, energy disputes, and the West’s attempts to redefine the emerging New Order in West Asia. This study, adopting a structural realist and geoeconomic perspective, seeks to examine the geopolitical and economic dimensions of this conflict and to assess its implications for Iran’s national security. The central research problem lies in the necessity for Iran to develop a multilayered strategy in response to the combination of hard military pressures and soft economic-political coercion. The research gap in the existing literature stems from the absence of an integrated security–economic analysis of crises of this kind.
The methodology is based on qualitative analysis of primary sources, including international legal documents, reports from Western think tanks, and secondary data from reputable news agencies and research centers. The analytical process proceeds in four stages: (1) identifying the geopolitical context of the attack, (2) examining the positions of major powers and regional actors, (3) analyzing Iran’s strategic options, and (4) formulating policy recommendations at domestic, regional, and international levels.
Findings reveal that sustainable deterrence for Iran requires a combination of domestic economic reforms, redefined regional diplomacy, and active engagement with international law. At the domestic level, restructuring the national budget and reducing oil dependency, strengthening targeted welfare funds, supporting supply chains of essential goods, and expanding defense-oriented and knowledge-based industries are essential. Furthermore, transitioning toward an export-oriented economy, diversifying markets, and rebuilding social capital through participatory governance provide the foundation for soft deterrence and national resilience.
The study concludes that Iran’s national security is not solely determined on the military battlefield but equally shaped in the domains of economic governance, smart diplomacy, and global narrative-building. The policy recommendations underscore that without bridging hard and soft deterrence - and without comprehensive domestic reforms, particularly in economic and social spheres - Iran will struggle to navigate future crises successfully.
Keywords
Iran&‌‌rsquo
s national security
Multilayered deterrence
12-day war
Geoeconomics
Structural realism
Economic governance

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 27 June 2025
  • Revise Date 21 August 2025
  • Accept Date 27 August 2025