Determining and estimating the factors affecting the export supply of methanol petrochemical product to export destinations (UAE, Turkey, China and India) using self-distributed vector regression model (ARDL)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Student of Energy Economics, Shahid Beheshti University of Tehran / Faculty of Economics and Political Science

2 Shahid Beheshti University / Faculty of Economics and Political Science

Abstract

cting the export supply of methanol petrochemical product to export destinations (UAE, Turkey, China and India) using self-distributed vector regression model (ARDL) Abstract Iran, as the fifth country in the field of crude oil production and the second largest gas producer in the world, is prone to the growth and development of the petrochemical industry, as the largest exporter of non-oil products, has a significant role in economic prosperity. From this point of view, considering the sanctions on crude oil exports in recent years and the problem of crude oil sales, it is important to pay attention to this industry as an effective factor in circumventing sanctions and currency for the country, developing the country's economic strategy and achieving sustainable economic development., Turkey, According to the studies, the factors that have affected the supply of Iranian methanol exports can be referred to as GDP of target countries, real exchange rate, exchange rate fluctuations, trade liberalization, price exchange relationship, refinery feed prices and sanctions as livestock variables. . In this study, the real exchange rate volatility index was estimated using the GARCH model and then the export supply model of Iran's methanol product was estimated by ARDL method. According to studies, the variables of GDP and trade liberalization have a positive and significant effect on the supply of Iranian exports in the short and long term, but other variables have a negative and significant effect on the supply of Iranian exports in the short and long term.

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References

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