Assessment the Effect of Asymmetrical Shocks of Oil Income on Macroeconomic Variables (Empirical Study between 1970-2018)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of the Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran

2 Associate Professor of the Department of Economics, Razi University

3 Ph.D student in economics, razi university, Kermanshah Iran

Abstract

Iran is among the most important oil-exporting countries in the world which enjoys the revenues of oil sales on providing public funding. The revenue of crude oil export in country constitutes a significant share of public budget. The aim of present study is to examine the effect of asymmetrical shocks of oil income on macroeconomic variables between 1970-2018.To investigate the relationship between Hamilton and Moorak oil shocks on macroeconomic variables auto regressive vector model is used. The results have shown that negative shock from Hamilton oil revenues compared to positive shock caused salient fluctuations on variables, but on positive and negative shocks of moorak, the effects of variables have been asymmetric. If positive and negative shocks to be entered on oil revenues, all the existing variables such as national gross income, national revenues, exports and imports of goods and services, government’s expenditures, inflation and private consumption will have reacted on incoming shocks.

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