Future of Iran’s oil and natural gas exports on the basis of net energy import dependency (NEID index) analysis of strategic markets to imports in 2015 and in horizon 2020 and 2030

In this research, the net energy import dependency index of energy imports for the world and Iran’s markets have been used to establish a criterion to analyze conditions of Iran’s natural gas and oil exports. NEID Index is one of the most popular and most widely used indexes in energy supply and security demand studies. There are various forms of this index due to energy and market studies. In the current research, we used the index to investigate three energy markets of China, India and the European Union. We provide a detailed description of the conditions of selected energy markets and the significance of them in delineating the amount of global energy demand. Next, a scenario has been developed for each market. Considering various energy carriers, the amount of NEID index on energy imports of each market are computed in 2015, and in horizon 2020 and 2030. Having analyzed the quantity of indexes of each market on three-time horizons indicate that dependency on India imports is more than China and the European Union in 2020, and 2030. Moreover, it will become more dependent on India imports over time. On the other hand, despite the fact that EU has lowest energy dependency in 2015, it will have passed through China and gain the most degree of dependency on energy imports in comparison to India. The acts of Iran’s energy exports in line with priorities of NEID index to imports of important global energy markets, can be the first step towards good policy-making of oil and natural gas exports.