Policy making after sanction relief: policy analysis by DSGE approach
meysam
khosravi
tehran university
author
mahdi
khoshkhooy
دانشگاه تهران
author
text
article
2018
per
Iran's economy has faced a more severe economic sanctions over the past decade. One of the issues that has always been the subject of controversy in the Iranian economy and among economic experts, is what will be the impact of economic sanctions relief - including oil, banking and commercial sanctions - in the country; and especially How much will it be affected real levels of production, consumption and investment in the economy, by this issue? Political shocks affect economic variables and developing a model to capture and also quantify these shocks can improve economic analysis. A very important question around this issue is after the shock relief what should policy maker do and which policy he supposed to make? This paper attempts to answer this question for Iran economy by developing a DSGE model. The result shows that expansionary monetary policy after sanction relief induces inflation and nominal interest increase. Contractionary fiscal policy (tax rate increase) in that situation implies not only labor supply decreasing but also capital and consumption falling.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
7
v.
24
no.
2018
5
33
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_110980_02dd5fcefb40daf4038eafb125d0306e.pdf
Investigating the Sustainability of Health Care Spending in IRAN: New Evidence based on the ARDL Approach
Seyed Ehsan
Hosseinidoust
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
author
Ezatollah
Abbasian
Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Public Management, Faculty of Management, Tehran University
author
Delshad
Rahman Maraneh
M.A of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University
author
text
article
2018
per
Health expenditure in any economy is one of the most important indicators of human capital development, which has a great impact on labor productivity and economic growth. The associated costs in this section are of great importance from economic point of view as well as investment in human capital. Since in developing countries a significant part of the country’s budget and household income is spent on health expenditures, examining the trend of these expenditures, the amount of resources allocated and identifying the factors affecting it is one of the main challenges. Therefore, the aim of current study is to investigate the sustainability of health expenditures per capita in Iran during the period 1360-1395 using explanatory variables of population, income and rate of inflation. Autoregression with Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Bound test have been used to evaluate the per capita health expenditure. The findings show that health expenditure per capita in Iran has an unstable trend and the existence of a long-term co-integration equation has not been confirmed. Short-term estimates show that income and population ratios have a positive effect, but inflation has negative impact on health expenditures per capita in Iran. Based on the findings of present study, role of government in controlling inflation can have an important effect on improving the quality of human capital in Iran and the implementation of policies to control it is recommended.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
7
v.
24
no.
2018
35
60
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_110982_7320dfc2d080012facd2c5544a77cf40.pdf
Asymmetric pass-through effects from monetary policy to housing market
فرزاد
ساقی
دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران
author
Kambiz
Hozhabr Kiani
Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
author
Akbar
Mirzapour Babajan
Assistant Professor of Economics, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran
author
Beytollah
Akbari Moghaddam
Assistant Professor of Economics, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran
author
text
article
2018
per
Recent studies show that prices in housing market have a nonlinear behavior and because of investors’ risk aversion, prices can be downward rigid. Such a nonlinear characteristic can lead variables like monetary policy affect housing market asymmetrically. As a result, in this study we investigate the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on housing market. In this way, we have used the quarterly data over the period 1993Q2 to 2018Q3 and Johansen (1991), Enders & Siklos (2001) cointegration approaches. The main difference between the mentioned cointegration approaches is that unlike Johansen’s method the Enders & Siklos’ method considers cointegration as a nonlinear phenomenon. Results of Johansen cointegration method show that there is no long run relationship between monetary policy and housing market prices whereas based on Enders & Siklos cointegration test these two variables are cointegrated. Results also indicate that the monetary policy have an asymmetric effect on housing market and only expansionary monetary policy can affect this market.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
7
v.
24
no.
2018
61
93
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_110983_eb800156a56b246be4ac69328cb6dacf.pdf
investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the tax burden of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange
mohammad sadegh
sheikh
student of Master degree of economy in Allameh Tabatabaei university
author
hojat
mirzaei
professor in the Allameh Tabatabaei university
author
text
article
2018
per
Economic policy uncertainty can affect economic growth, reduce equity returns, reduce corporate investment and increase cash capital; as a result, economic policy uncertainty leads to reduced fiscal revenue for governments. At the same time, however, local governments are motivated to contain the recession to increase financial costs, including tax rates, which increase the financial burden on governments. To alleviate the pressure, local governments are making every effort to increase their tax revenue, which can increase the tax burden on corporations. In this regard, the main purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the tax burden of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2012-2018. In order to analyze the collected data, a panel data model was used to perform all the analyzes using Eviews10 software. The findings of the study showed that the policy uncertainty variable had significant effects on corporate tax burden, thus confirming the hypothesis presented in the study.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
7
v.
24
no.
2018
95
119
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_110984_398298424a1d474322a20c56bdeb3f34.pdf
Designing Dynamic Economic Model of Kermanshah Water Basin
shima
shojaa
Shahroud University of Technology، shahroud، iran
author
hoseyn
rezaee
Assistant Professor of Payame Noor University of Damghan
author
MohammadReza
Armanmehr
Assistant Professor of Economics, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
author
text
article
2018
per
In this research, the integration of dynamic management and planning of Surface Water Resources and groundwater resources in Kermanshah city during 1996-95 has been investigated using systems dynamics method And by 1407 the simulation system was implemented. Research findings indicate that population is one of the main factors in increasing water demand.The results of the model implementation show that investing in the installation of lower consumption appliances in the three sectors of household, agriculture and industry can save and ultimately reduce demand and reduce water deficit index. The supply-side scenario also shows that investing in network remediation and leakage reduction has the greatest impact on reducing water scarcity And the increase in the price of water has the least effect on other variables. Based on the findings of the model, future development of the sewage network will be a useful strategy for water conservation and reduction of water scarcity index.Considering the environmental scenario, the maximum use of surface water can be made during the wet season.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
7
v.
24
no.
2018
121
150
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_110985_86e45688140d9eb4ee23fdcfb3d7e420.pdf
Investigation of New Strategies for Selling Iranian Crude Oil with Anti-Sanctions Approach
seyyed abdollah
razavi
The Petroleum University of Technology
author
masoud
rasouli Amirabadi
Imam sadegh University
author
text
article
2018
per
The sale of crude oil as a strategic commodity is important in addition to its economic importance in the political and security spheres of countries. As one of the primary enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran since the beginning of the Islamic Revolution, the United States has sought to disrupt the Islamic Republic by using various methods, including restricting investment and sanctions in various fields. Today it has tried to make this ring of pressure harder on us. The main question that this study seeks to answer is to provide guidelines for the sale of Iranian crude oil under current smart sanctions, in this regard, 24 experts in this field were interviewed and coded and final results were analyzed through content analysis method. The results show that according to the current situation, 17 strategies can be used by the researcher in four categories: technical mechanisms, political-legal mechanisms, economic-financial mechanisms, and commercial mechanisms, of course, hybrid use of these strategies is also possible and will work.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
7
v.
24
no.
2018
151
176
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_110986_4e9d279bb148b66c16611606c45a9d93.pdf