Determinants of Inflation in Iran based on Bayesian Model Averaging
آرزو
غضنفری
author
محسن
مهرآرا
author
text
article
2014
per
Due to the significant impact of inflation on macro-economic variables, researchers pay tremendous amount of attention to inflation determinants. Accordingly, the present research investigates the impact of 13 variables on inflation during 1959 and 2012 by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The ranking of the 13 explanatory variables were obtained based on the probability of their inclusion in model. The results show that price of energy and money imbalance (Lag ratio of money to nominal output) have expected and positive effects on the inflation rate with a probability of 100 % and they are the key explanatory variables in inflation equation. The energy price, currency imbalance measure, money growth and market exchange rate growth are the first four determinants of inflation in Iran. The impact of the output growth on inflation is not significant in the short-run but it gradually influences the inflation through money imbalance channel in the long-run. In addition, most anti-inflation effects appear with delay due to a decrease in the money supply. These results imply the dominance of monetary variables or monetary inflation in the Iranian economy and the cost push factors not having significant impact on the prices. Also, variables such as oil revenues and imports can have an impact of inflation only if they are channeled through the exchange rate, output growth and money velocity.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
10
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103262_2bc2e9110f93d80cb5b0082121f3a64a.pdf
The impact of Monetary policy on financial and real price instability through GMM Method
اکبر
کمیجانی
author
حسین
عباسینژاد
author
طاهره
بیژنی
author
text
article
2014
per
To fully accomplish monetary policy, the awareness of central bank about transmission process and the impact of it on the other economic variables is critical. One of the most important mechanisms is the impact of monetary policy on asset prices.This paper surveys the impact of monetay policy on some asset prices such as Gold ,Exchange rate, Real estate and Stock market in Iran.; Estimating the response of asset price variation on monetary policy would be felt with some difficulties, problems such as implementation of both monetary policy and asset price change, also some missing variables which have affected the monetary policy and asset price, together.; These two issues make identification and diognosing of this reaction harder. So, this research uses the diagnosing techniques through heterogenons variance of monetary policy shocks which have been introduced by Rigbon and Sock (2004) .Our monthly estimates during 1999-2012 indicate that expansionary monetary policy has positive impact on Real state, Stock market and Gold price while it has negative impact on Exchange rate.; ;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
10
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103263_f1cfe770340c8155171cd6532f7e2f51.pdf
Comparing Cost of Living Index with Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Urban Areas
تیمور
محمدی
author
عباس
شاکری
author
علی
شهابی
author
مهنوش
عبداله میلانی
author
text
article
2014
per
The main objective of this paper is to compare consumer price index (CPI) with true cost of living index (COLI) of Iran’s urban households from 1991 to 2011. In order to determine the minimum subsistence level, An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS) was estimated using GAMS and Minos5. Then with help of those estimations, the Engle coefficients for a linear expenditure system were estimated using the seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) econometric technique for 12 commodity groups. Using the results of previous estimates, welfare measures and true cost of living index were calculated and compared with the prices of the base year (2004=100). The results indicate that during the period of study, the consumer price index (CPI) is a skewed estimate of the cost of living index and, with the exception of 2008, underestimates it for the period between 2005 and 2011 while overestimating it for rest of the period. In other words, for the period between 1991 and 2003, it displays an upward bias while for the others, it is downward. Results also show that the cost of living indices for expenditure deciles are significantly different from the CPI in urban areas
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
10
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103264_5974cb8a2ba30c9e0916e1542933ad2f.pdf
Investigating the Hysteresis Phenomenon in Unemployment Rate of Economy of Iran
سعید
عیسیزاده
author
محبوبه
طبرسی
author
text
article
2014
per
Iran is among the countries with high and persistent rates of unemployment. The unemployment trend in Iran shows particular feature of being permanent at high levels while indicating no convergence to a unique value. The present research examines the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment rate in Iran. Hysteresis is dependency on the past history; therefore hysteresis in unemployment implies that unemployment rate is related to its past history. Therefore, all shocks have permanent effect on unemployment; so, economy doesn’t reach to a long-run equilibrium as it is changing constantly. This study investigates the impact of hysteresis in unemployment ratein Iran during 1959 and 2011 by using time-series data and traditional and modern method of unit root test that considers structural breaks exogenously and endogenously. Results show existence of this phenomenon in unemployment rate. Therefore, in Iran, during the period of this study, the natural rate of unemployment has followed the path of the current unemployment rate. Therefore, policymakers should be mindful of the demand side policies while considering that high level of unemployment, if not tackled, may persist permanently and continue to be a serious problem for the economy.; ;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
10
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103265_7d673c285b0c7cf6512a98192cd2bc32.pdf
A Meta-analysis of Iranian Development Plans’ Pathologies
جلیل
سلیمی
author
رضا
مکنون
author
محسن
بهرامی
author
text
article
2014
per
Even though Iran has a 65-year history of development planning, it is still considered a developing state with a huge amount of human, financial and natural resources, which have been consumed but produced less results. Therefore, it seems necessary to examine and analyze critically the dominant approach in the country’s planning regime and identify its weak and strong points. Although many studies have been undertaken to identify the weak and strong points of Iran’s planning system, more research is required. In this paper, Iran`s development plans are reviewed for almost six decades. Development plans are studied in terms of the most dominant theories of development, coverage, time horizon, spatial planning, geographical coverage and methods of preparation and implementation. Furthermore, this research investigates the practical problems of development planning. In this paper, the weak points are classified at three levels of pre-planning, planning and post-planning. This paper used Meta-Analysis Method (MAM) to combine the findings of other researches and tried to describe the weaknesses of Iran’s development plan regime clearly in a detailed and understandable manner. As a result, this paper introduces a comprehensive model that shows different aspects of Iranian development plans which could be for policy makers. Finally, different ways of addressing the weaknesses are presented and recommended
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
10
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103266_3c16d439c93079b28f87c27c1b752459.pdf
An approach towards the Sixth Development Plan in Iran from the viewpoint of the social capital of knowledge-based economy: with respect to the fourth and fifth palns
فائزه
فروزان
author
محمدرضا
یوسفی شیخ رباط
author
محمدنقی
نظرپور
author
text
article
2014
per
In the late twentieth century, the knowledge-based economy was introduced and changed the framework of development plans which have been adjusted based on knowledge components. Iran, like many other countries, adjusted its fourth and fifth development plans based on the knowledge factors. In this respect, social capital is considered as a vital prerequisite for the formation of the production, distribution and application of knowledge and the creation of knowledge components. Considering the importance of social capital in achieving the knowledge-based economy (KBE), this study, with the descriptive-analytical approach, is trying to answer this question: what approach should be employed in order to set up a social capital for KBE in the Sixth Development Plan of Iran. The results of the examination of the Fourth Development Plan showed that due attention has been made to create confidence and participation in research activities. But there are problems in the knowledge norms and research networks. In the Fifth Development Plan, there is only one article about the creation of knowledge norms and research networks and participation while ignoring all issues which could have resulted in improved confidence. Therefore, in the Sixth Development Plan, the government can provide necessary grounds for the creation of social capital for the knowledge-based economy through reforming the educational system (to incorporate knowledge norms and promote innovation), enacting laws (such as the intellectual property law) and supervising their implementation, investing in knowledge-based economy and R&D sectors, creating scientific and research social networks and information data bank, establishing political and economic stability and founding ICT infrastructure.; ;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
10
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103267_7cd94a3f3ecda96dc967a66211a17694.pdf
Constructing a composite social indicator for justice based on the IRI Constitution and its measurement during 2004 and 2011
مرتضی
عزتی
author
text
article
2014
per
The main objective of this paper is to construct a composite indicator to measure social justice over the 2004-2011 period. The variables were chosen after a thorough a review of literature. Statistical data were collected through documentary method, and were analyzed according to the content analysis method. indices required for constructing composite indicator were extracted from the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran. After identifying conceptual components of justice, they were evaluated by 15 selected experts under a survey framework.. In the next step, the results of the first survey were summed up in order to weigh various components, and the questionnaires were filled again to obtain a composition which supports views of experts. Statistical data required for measuring composite indicator included various data published by the Statistical Center of Iran and credible world institutions.; ;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
10
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103268_51513bffd8e39a8673bd29260d420d49.pdf