Estimation of the period of return in public and private sector investment in Iran
ابراهیم
فرجی
author
نادر
مهرگان
author
text
article
2014
per
Investment in all countries of the world is considered as the engine of development and prime-mover of economy ; In fact more production and investment will result in more improvement of economy. Here the governmental and private sectors as the major investors in Iran can have different impacts depending on different approaches and conditions. On the one hand, the government is required to prioritize social benefits using oil income and public infrastructures; on the other,the private sector focuses on the efficacy of the yield of investment in competition with the government whose policy miscalculation will lead to the decline of the private sector’s return efficacy. In the present study, using Almon’s dilatory distribution, researchers determine the period of yield of investment in both government and private sectors to provide the investors with good ideas and suggestions and present a criterion for the evaluation to administer the investment. Findings indicate that the length of the return of the investment is seven and ten years for private sector and government respectively. Moreover, the highest efficacy for private sector occurs in the fourth period while the governmental sector reaches the highest efficacy in the fifth period.; ;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
9
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103255_6906ea795f98213eedd07140ecf03e4d.pdf
The effect of energy price reform on production costs in Iran’s industries
ابراهیم
هادیان
author
مجید
اسلامی اندارگلی
author
text
article
2014
per
The main purpose of this paper is to study the effect of energy prices reform on production costs in various Iranian industries. In doing so, researchers use the input–output approach on the basis of energy table of 2006. In this framework, two scenarios (the price of energy carriers in 2010 and predicted energy price based on FOB price in 2016) in two stages (direct and indirect effect of those mentioned scenarios) have been employed. ; The results of the direct effects of applying the first scenario at the first stage show that the production costs will increase more in the brick, cement, transport, storage and communications sectors. In this scenario, the highest direct and indirect effects in production costs were recorded in brick industry with a 46.51 percent increase. Moreover, the direct effects of the second scenario suggest the highest increase of production costs in the brick, cement, tile and ceramics sectors with the brick having a 94.05 percent increase- the highest in terms of direct and indirect effect.;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
9
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103256_30477037743ae82c6d53e5cc9e987fd7.pdf
Exploring the impact of bank interest rate on forming and transformation of asset optimal portfolio in Iran; the application of mean-variance model
بیتا
شایگانی
author
فرامرز
طهماسبی
author
text
article
2014
per
In this study by taking into account household assets (bank deposits, participation bonds, stocks, foreign currency, gold coin, and housing), the optimal composition of asset portfolio during 1991-2011 is extracted by applying mean-variance model and using MATLAB. Findings indicate low-risk people save 68 percent of their asset in the form of participation bonds and the rest as stocks and other assets. This study demonstrated that stock and housing will increase in the asset portfolio of people with the increase in the risk of asset portfolio. such that, stock and housing account respectively for 78 and 22 percent for high risk people. Asset composition changes due to interest rate changes was also investigated in the present research. The result indicated that while the real interest of bank deposit is negative, the highest share in asset portfolio for low-risk people was related participation to bonds (77 percent). The highest share in asset portfolio for high-risk people belonged to coin (81percent). when the real interest of bank deposit is positive, bank deposit is the highest in the asset portfolio for low–risk people (75 percent) and stock is the highest for high-risk people (76 percent). There is no place for bonds, gold coins and foreign currency in that portfolio.; ;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
9
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103257_def6fe6c8fa65a14d7546cbada9363c5.pdf
Relationship between defense expenses and economic growth in Iran
ابوالقاسم
گلخندان
author
داود
گلخندان
author
محمد
مولایی
author
text
article
2014
per
Defense expenses account for one of the considerable and important public expenditures in most countries which play an important role in maintaining the internal and external security and economic stability and growth directly or indirectly. Undoubtedly, when the security of a country is threatened, more defense expenses are justified and economic and social investments decrease, resulting in lower economic growth . The study of impact of defense expenses on economic growth in Iran is important and necessary for two reasons: Iran's strategic position in the Middle East and the high defense expenses in government budget. For this purpose, Iran’s defense expensesduring 1959-2010are estimated by an augmented Solow model (proposed by Knight, Loayza and Villanueva). Findings show, using co-integration Johanson's and Granger Causality of Toda and Yamamoto Test model, there is a positive impact of defense expenses on economic growth in the long run and bidirectional causality between variables. Thus, although it is inevitable to allocate some portion of the annual public budget for defense expenses , its over-use will have negative impacts on the economic growth, causing stagflation in country.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
9
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103258_69a6dd7f04927d90574fff9db7357709.pdf
Evaluating unofficial dollarization in the Iranian economy
ایوب
ابوذری
author
غلامرضا
زمانیان
author
text
article
2014
per
Dollarization” is the use of foreign currency as a unit of account, store of value or a medium of exchange in addition to (or instead of) the domestic currency. In unofficial dollarization, people are not willing to keep domestic currency due to high inflation and depreciation of the national currency and will exchange a portion of their money into foreign currency. In this paper, using “Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)” model, dollarization index is estimated for the Iranian economy. Findings of this study show that the Iranian economy is dollarized. The dollarization index reached from 0.52 in 1978 to 0.77 in 1993 and persisted until 2003 due to dollarization irreversibility. The dollarization index declined after 2003 but increased in 2012 to 0.6. The main cause of dollarization in the Iranian economy is high and chronic inflation over the past forty years. For the inhibition of dollarization phenomenon, conditions should be created under which dollarization could become reversible through the enhancement of the confidence of domestic residents in national currency. For this purpose, negative shocks (currency and inflation) into the economy should be avoided for at least 10 years.; ;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
9
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103259_35bcdd4a8b71f0e7ddd12089b62da994.pdf
Ranking of Iran’s economic status in South-West Asia using multi-criteria decision-making approach
جواد
قربانی
author
رضا
خوشسیما
author
محمد
غفاری فرد
author
میثم
امیری
author
text
article
2014
per
According to Iran’s Twenty Year Vision Policy Document, the country will be a developed state ranking first in the region in terms of economy by the end of 2025. Development has many aspects, the economic development is one of its most important pillar. It is crucial to have a clear understanding of the status in order to realize the Vision Policy goals and based on the future planning and policy making.; This paper is an attempt to determine the economic status of Iran in the region . To this end, various economic indicators were collected within the specified time frame. Given the different importance of these factors in determining the economic status, using - multi-criteria decision-making models (AHP and TOPSIS ) to determine the relative weight of each indicator, the combination index of the economic status of countries was identified. Findingsillustrate that Turkey, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran rank first to fifth, respectively, among the twenty-five countries of South-West Asia in terms of economic development.;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
9
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103260_2e488e761178dc767f027af5df2b59a2.pdf
Ranking of Iran’s economic status in South-West Asia using multi-criteria decision-making approach
اکرم
چرمگر
author
رضا
محسنی
author
صادق
داداشی
author
یزدان
سیف
author
text
article
2014
per
According to Iran’s Twenty Year Vision Policy Document, the country will be a developed state ranking first in the region in terms of economy by the end of 2025. Development has many aspects, the economic development is one of its most important pillar. It is crucial to have a clear understanding of the status in order to realize the Vision Policy goals and based on the future planning and policy making.; This paper is an attempt to determine the economic status of Iran in the region . To this end, various economic indicators were collected within the specified time frame. Given the different importance of these factors in determining the economic status, using - multi-criteria decision-making models (AHP and TOPSIS ) to determine the relative weight of each indicator, the combination index of the economic status of countries was identified. Findingsillustrate that Turkey, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran rank first to fifth, respectively, among the twenty-five countries of South-West Asia in terms of economic development;
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
3
v.
9
no.
2014
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103261_2a306c9b3ac5e9239845c4a93f5ea137.pdf