Assessment the Effect of Asymmetrical Shocks of Oil Income on Macroeconomic Variables (Empirical Study between 1970-2018)
usef
mehnatfar
Assistant Professor of the Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran
author
ali
falahati
Associate Professor of the Department of Economics, Razi University
author
nazanin zahra
sotoudeh
Ph.D student in economics, razi university, Kermanshah Iran
author
text
article
2019
per
Iran is among the most important oil-exporting countries in the world which enjoys the revenues of oil sales on providing public funding. The revenue of crude oil export in country constitutes a significant share of public budget. The aim of present study is to examine the effect of asymmetrical shocks of oil income on macroeconomic variables between 1970-2018.To investigate the relationship between Hamilton and Moorak oil shocks on macroeconomic variables auto regressive vector model is used. The results have shown that negative shock from Hamilton oil revenues compared to positive shock caused salient fluctuations on variables, but on positive and negative shocks of moorak, the effects of variables have been asymmetric. If positive and negative shocks to be entered on oil revenues, all the existing variables such as national gross income, national revenues, exports and imports of goods and services, government’s expenditures, inflation and private consumption will have reacted on incoming shocks.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
8
v.
29
no.
2019
5
35
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_105293_089dbb38ba64f1060df109862a6557cd.pdf
Conditional correlation between foreign exchange markets, gold, housing, stock and oil in the Iranian economy
mohammad reza
sezavar
Ph.D. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics & Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
alireza
khazaei
Ph.D. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics & Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
mojtaba
eslamian
M.A. student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran
author
text
article
2019
per
The purpose of the present study is to use the dynamic conditional correlation method (DCC-GARCH) to examine the correlation structure in the seasonal data of exchange rate returns, stock market price index, gold price, oil price and housing price (rent index) over the period 1992 to It's 2016. The results obtained using OXMetrix software indicate that there is a high conditional correlation between gold and currency yields and the least conditional correlation is observed between housing and currency yields. In addition, by examining the conditional correlation diagram between returns on assets, there is a change in the conditional correlation process caused by global developments, indicating the impact of the world developments on Iranian economy.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
8
v.
29
no.
2019
37
60
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_105296_f8eb52a12132160df14df36a4709af23.pdf
Analytical review of the nonlinear effect of liquidity tensions on income inequality in Iran: NARDL approach
asghar
abolhasani
Associate Prof of Payame Noor University,Department of Economics
author
samira
motaghi
Assistant Prof of Payame Noor University, Department of Economics
author
salah
ebrahimi
Ph.D Student of Chamran University, Department of Economics
author
text
article
2019
per
The present paper tries to investigate the effect of liquidity volatility on income inequality in Iran with a new approach using nonlinear ARDL(NARDL) techniques and Liquidity, unemployment rate, real GDP and Gini coefficient as research variables.
The results of research showed that:
Income inequality shows a significant reaction to liquidity fluctuations.
The results of Wald Test showed that the impact of income inequality on liquidity fluctuations is Symmetrical and other results indicate the
The positive effect of unemployment rate and the negative effect of gdp on inequality in Iran.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
8
v.
29
no.
2019
61
79
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_105297_10d59403a4756d85ed8185d706791ca4.pdf
An examination of the effect of fiscal policy shock on stock market in: A DSGE approach
abdolsamad
rahmani
phd student of economics, Faculty of administrative science and Economics, university of isfahan, Iran
author
saeid
samadi
associated professor of economics, Faculty of administrative science and Economics, university of isfahan, Iran
author
rasoul
bakhshi dastjerdi
assistant professor of economics, Faculty of administrative science and Economics, university of isfahan, Iran
author
text
article
2019
per
Financial markets, and especially the stock market, are one of the most important sources of financing investment projects in the path of economic growth and development, which are affected by various policies. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of government fiscal policies on the stock market in Iran, which is examined by presenting a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. To this end, in designing the model, government spending, consumption tax rate, capital tax rates and wages tax rates were considered as fiscal policy instruments. The results of the the impulse responses to a shock of fiscal policy instruments show that government spending shocks, capital tax shocks, and wage tax shocks lead to a decline in intermediary firms' profits and stock price indices, but Consumer tax shocks lead to increases the profits of intermediaries and the stock price index.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
8
v.
29
no.
2019
81
110
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_105299_d8d8008ca9a7d0ff13b4a7d9bba5b33a.pdf
Islamic Republic of Iran Oil and Gas Trade Lessons Based on Russian Oil and Gas Trade Strategies during the Sanctions
seyyed abdollah
razavi
Faculty Member of the Petroleum University of Technology
author
mohammadbagher
bayat
Master of Science Student of Energy Economics of Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch,
author
text
article
2019
per
Russia deal with US sanctions has been able to gain a large share of world oil markets with its active economic and energy Diplomacy. With depencyEuropean economies to energy sorce of Russia have largely Deactivate US oil and gas sanctions, and even Russia has been successes against the United States Action and established a joint front with China and Venezuela against the United States. This article examines Russia's oil and gas strategies.The most important strategies of Russia are to depend on the European economy to Russia oil and gas, price regulation, transfer share of state oil companies to international companies, development of oil and gas pipeline, expansion of liquefied natural gas and its markets, and development of long-term cooperation with some of Iran's oil competitors Same as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Also, given Europe's serious sanctions on joint ventures with Russia, its strategy has shifted from Europe to Asian countries. In the meantime, Iran's approach to using Russia's capacity as a partner or competitor in the oil and gas field is considerable. This article presents the Russian lessons learned in the above areas for the country. Russia has been attracting investment from Asian countries by establishing active diplomacy with Asian countries, which have largely resisted sanctions, and has offset the decline in relations with Western nations through this strategy. Transmission of oil through pipelines has been a factor in securing oil demand, and Russia has adopted one of its strategic policies in the field of transportation, oil and gas transmission through long-term contracts and pipelines. Increasing the role of international companies in Russia is part of its strategy to acquire technology or access its gas and oil export network.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
8
v.
29
no.
2019
111
154
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_105301_31e12f32ca8aa0cc3484d92fcbf8e06f.pdf
The Role of Business Development Policies and Strategies on the Performance of
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
seyed abbas
hosseini
Ph.D. student of public management, Department of Management, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran
author
torag
mogibi
Associate Professor, Department of Management, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran
author
ali
mehdizadeh ashrafi
Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran
author
hossein
vazifedost
Professor, Department of Management, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran
author
text
article
2019
per
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have always been the focus of policymakers in different countries because of their very valuable capacity to create low-cost, high-efficiency employment. Given the high unemployment and necessity of employment as one of the most important concerns of policymakers in recent years, the present study focuses on the effective role of SME development strategies and policies in facilitating the process of setting up firms and Improving the business climate of countries.
In this paper, the impact of business development policies on the development of small and medium-sized businesses was examined from both strategic development and operational development aspects, both of which had very high coefficients and their significant impact and relationship. Approved. It was also observed that in the dimension of strategic development, the variables "promotion of stakeholder satisfaction" and "promotion of labor and capital productivity" had the highest and the lowest coefficients, respectively. Among the variables related to the operational development, the variable "Increasing sales of products and services" had the highest and the variable "Risk management and strengthening of internal controls" had the lowest coefficient , both of which had their own relevant burden.
Economic Strategy
پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام
2252-0597
8
v.
29
no.
2019
155
203
https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_105303_ecf52d696a17a1103dca1eb06b4607db.pdf